More Young People saving thanks to Automatic Enrolment

The Pensions Regular has published a report examining the impact of automatic enrolment so far, along with future challenges.

A key finding was that more people in their twenties are now saving into their workplace pension due to the success of automatic enrolment. The report also shows a significant reduction in the gender gap in pension saving and an increase in savings among employees of small and micro businesses.

The report has been published annually since the start of automatic enrolment in 2012 and this is the final publication. Key highlights of the report include:

  • Between the introduction of the reforms in 2012 and April 2018, the overall proportion of eligible staff saving into a pension increased from 55% to 87%.
  • In the private sector, participation seen in 22 to 29 year olds increased from 24% in 2012 to 84% in 2018.
  • In 2018 participation rates for both male and female eligible employees in the private sector was 85%.

HMRC Statistics on Flexible Payments from Pensions

Official Statistics on flexible pension payments show a 21% increase in the amount withdrawn from pensions flexibly, increasing from £1.97 billion in Q3 2018 to £2.37 billion in Q3 2019. The number of individuals making withdrawals saw an increase of 27% over the year up to 327,000.  This was a slightly lower number than in the previous quarter but reflects the seasonal trend where more people withdraw funds at the start of the tax year.

The average withdrawal in Q3 2019 fell slightly to £7,250, down from £7,600 in Q3 2018.  The statistics have shown average withdrawal amounts consistently decreasing since reporting became mandatory in Q2 2016 with peaks in Q2 of every year, again in line with the start of the tax year. The decrease in average withdrawals suggests fewer people are paying unnecessary income tax on large withdrawals, however, advice is still essential to ensure money is taken in the most tax efficient way.

Even where careful planning is sought, due to the way withdrawals are made under the PAYE system too much tax is often deducted at source.  Where this occurs clients can make a reclaim during the tax year.

70 is the new 65

Viewing 65 as the marker for old age is an outdated notion, a report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said, as new data suggests the health of a 70-year-old today is comparable to that of someone five years their junior a decade ago. The report has renewed calls from experts for employers to reconsider their attitudes towards older workers and those who choose to work beyond the traditional retirement age. The analysis of health data and life expectancy by the ONS found that men in England and Wales aged 70 in 2017 had the same remaining life expectancy – 15 years – as a 65-year-old did in 1997.

Similarly, women aged 70 had the same remaining life expectancy as a 65-year-old in 1981. The report also found that men and women were now comparably healthier in their older age. In 1981, 45% of people aged 65 to 85 had poor general health, compared to 39% today. Levels of poor health for women aged 70 in 2017 were the same as those aged 60 in 1981, while men the same age had comparable health to those who were 65 in 1997. While highlighting the limitations of its own analysis, the report said the age of 70 now “appears to be the new 65 (or even younger) in terms of health”. The ONS predicted that, by 2050, those over the age of 65 will make up almost a quarter of the population, while the number of people aged 85 and over is growing faster than any other age group.

Financial education fails to cut through to young adults

Five years after its introduction onto the national curriculum, students still say they are not getting enough access to a comprehensive financial education and that they worry about money. They want to learn more about the practicalities of managing money – budgeting, debt management, tax and how products work. And well over half (60%) would like this to be a separate subject.

The findings are from the latest Young Persons’ Money Index, an annual research tracker run by The London Institute of Banking & Finance to assess the take-up and impact of financial education in schools. The research found:

Today, 64% of students say they have access to financial education compared to only 29% in 2015. That’s a big difference.

However, most are taught financial education as part of other subjects and the majority don’t receive financial education regularly.

  • Only 18% had access within the last month
  • 16% only in the last term
  • 17% only in the last year
  • 15% more than a year ago
  • The numbers who say they get most of their financial knowledge and understanding outside of school – from their parents and/or self-learned online – remain high (86%).
  • It is significant therefore that the majority also say they would like to learn more in school (82%) and regularly worry about money and their personal finances (69%).
  • When asked how they would like to learn more about money, 60% would prefer to learn this as a separate subject.
  • Learning more about financial products such as mortgages and credit cards, tax, budgeting and debt management are their top priorities.

 

Weekly Market Commentary – 10th January 2020

Iran-US War Fears Subside

This week saw the welcome retreat of the political risk that dogged so much of 2019. The potential war between the US and Iran looks less likely than it did a week ago as the cycle of escalation that was feared never materialised. The passing of the Brexit bill also brings to a close a turbulent chapter in British political history. Both issues are likely to raise their heads again in 2020, but for now it’s a relief to see them both move on.  Elsewhere we get a chance to see what a Corbyn election victory might have looked like, as Spain formed a socialist coalition government this week. It isn’t quite accurate to compare this result to our own recent election. The left-wing socialist party did almost as badly as our own but has managed to secure a position as minority coalition partner. It will be interesting to see if any of their policy ideas gain traction, as many of Jeremy Corbyn’s policies were far more popular than he was.

 Companies: Aston Martin Stock Continues to Falter

Aston Martin first listed its shares for £19 each on October 2018. Since then the prices have fallen to £4.50. A run of consistently bad news has seen the share price plummet and the announcement this week saw the stock take another hit.  The luxury British carmaker confirmed it expected earnings to total £130-140m last year – a fall of around £100m from the year prior. Sales from Aston Martin dealers to consumer were up 12 per cent but the actual volume of cars requested by the dealers fell 7 per cent.

While the wheels seem to be coming off for Aston Martin, Rolls Royce continue to find another gear. The company posted bumper full year profits sending shares higher after the announcement. It beat its record number of cars sold by 25 per cent, powered by Cullinan SUV sales.

Global: US-Train War Threats Causes Market Turbulence

Markets reacted violently to Iran firing ballistic missiles at a US airbase in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of their top general. Fears of an all-out war twice triggered crude prices to break $70 dollars per barrel mark, before receding back to $65. Safe-haven assets like US Government Bonds, Gold and the Japanese Yen rallied.

It was only after a tweet sent out by Iran’s foreign minister that markets calmed. Mohammad Zarif tweeted that Iran had made a proportionate response and didn’t feel the need to go to war with the US. So far, looking at the rhetoric from both sides, it appears the threat of war is subsiding.

In the meantime, Iran may have to contended with a different scandal. Shortly after the missiles hit Iraq all 176 passengers of the Boeing 737 en-route to Kiev were killed shortly after take-off from Tehran. There are suggestions the plane may have been collateral damage in the missile strike which will complicate the situation. 

Spain: Forms first coalition Government since 1930s

After months of political uncertainty and two inconclusive elections, Spain finally has a functioning government. Interim Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, leader of the socialist party PSOE won 120 seats but fell short of the 176 seats required to form a one-party government. Sanchez brokered a deal with far left Podemos and will lead Spain’s first coalition government since the restoration of democracy.

Whether a marriage between the hard-left and centre-left will work remains to be seen. In the meantime, the two parties have managed to agree to hike taxes for high earners and focus on reducing emissions and labour legislation improvements.

 

2020-2021 Lifetime Allowance

Based on the Annual CPI to September 2019 of 1.7% and legislation, the Lifetime Allowance for 2020-2021 would be calculated as £1,072,900. However, based on last year the Government chose to round up to the nearest £5,000 which would mean the Lifetime Allowance for 2020-2021 would be £1,075,000.

Woodford client losses revealed

Trapped investors in the £3 billion Woodford Equity Income fund are forecast to lose a third of their remaining investment according to modelling of the wind-up process commissioned by administrator Link Fund Solutions. The modelling, conducted by private equity specialists PJT Park Hill last month, outlines a base case forecast of 32.5% losses as the fund is liquidated. Under the worst-case scenario, the fund’s value would fall by 42.6%. Woodford Investment Management, the sacked former managers of the fund, had claimed the impact on the fund had it reopened would have been much less severe.

In a presentation for Link prepared by Woodford in October in a bid to retain the mandate, it estimated worst-case losses of 9.3% from the remaining repositioning it believed was required for the fund to reopen in December. The fund group was sacked before it was able to deliver the presentation. This estimate did not however account for the likely impact of the large-scale withdrawals expected. Woodford Investment Management was anticipating the fund would shrink to around £750 million had it reopened, retaining some support from financial advisers who had signalled their backing.

Link said its decision to wind-up Woodford Equity Income was based on ‘insufficient progress on the repositioning of the fund’. The fund’s wind-up is set to add to the mounting losses already suffered by investors trapped in the fund. Since the fund’s launch in June 2014 to the announcement of its wind-up last month, investors have lost 18%, while the FTSE All-Share has risen 33%. In the last two years the fund is down 37% as the portfolio has unwound dramatically, including a 19% fall since the fund was suspended in June.

A matter of trusts

The investment trust sector may be more than 150 years old, but it has not stood still. The types of trusts available to private investors have changed markedly over the years, and in particular, during the past decade. Perhaps the most striking development has been the huge increase in trusts that hold alternative assets — covering a vast range of non-equity-based investments such as infrastructure, renewable energy, property and debt.

In July 2019, total assets under management in this area exceeded £80bn, according to the Association of Investment Companies (AIC) — an increase of over 150% since 2009. Trusts focused on alternatives comprise around 40% of assets under management across the entire investment trust universe.

The growth of this sector has been fuelled by investors seeking higher income investments. But some of these trusts are higher risk as well as higher yielding, so investors must weigh these risks carefully when deciding how much to allocate to them — if at all — and which trusts to pick. While it is good that there is an increasing range of options on offer, as well as being higher risk than traditional trusts focused on mainstream equities, alternatives trusts invest in assets that are hard to understand so thorough due diligence is called for.

Weekly Market Commentary – 3 January 2020

Killing of Iranian Military Leader could trigger all out Iran-US War
This week has been characteristically quiet; it is traditional at this time of year to pad empty column inches with an annual roundup, and this time there is the added bonus of the end of the decade to provide even more filler material . We have avoided that temptation, if not the irony, and instead choose to scratch around looking for something to talk about. The markets don’t seem to mind the lack of activity however, as the opening days of 2020 have seen a strong start for most stocks.

Elsewhere tensions in the middle east threaten to reach boiling point as the tit-for-tat exchange between the US and Iran shows a real chance of dramatically escalating. The death of a senior Iranian military commander in a US air strike, is expected to provoke a strong response. So far Iran has been targeting oil infrastructure, either in the Strait of Hormuz, or in its drone attack on Saudi Arabia. Oil prices have jumped on the news.

France: Pension reform strike show little sign of abating
France, the country which goes on the most strikes (amongst selected OECD countries), is now undergoing its longest strike in the last half century. The transit strike which has now stretched to 30 days has shut down public transport services, reduced the number of hospital staff, teachers and police officers at work. At the crux of the
matter is pension reform. France currently has 42 different types of pension regimes across the public and private sectors. Pension benefits are mostly worked out using an employee’s 25 highest-paid years of work in the private sector and in the public sector it’s based on payments made in the last six months before retirement.

Macron’s new reform plans include shifting to a single universal points-based system where employees are rewarded for each day worked as well as phasing out early retirement for some sectors. Whether this strike will have a significant impact on the country’s growth rate remains to be seen. A similar strike in 1995, again over pension reform, only knocked 0.2 percentage points off economic growth.

Global: Canada’s Economy Unexpectedly Contracts
Consumer spending continues to drive US economic growth, with the final Saturday of December raking in a whopping $34.4bn – the largest shopping day ever recorded. However, across the border, retail numbers from Canada paint a more woeful picture. Sales contracted 1.2 per cent for the month of October: well below economist expectations of 0.5 per cent. Combine this with weak industrial figures and a housing environment where new house prices have barely risen last year and it was unsurprising to see Canada posted a 0.1 per cent contraction in growth for October.

Recession fears are rising. And while the retail figures only run up to October, manufacturing data for the month of December shows a stalling sector as new orders fall, and the existing backlog rapidly dwindles. None of this has troubled its currency however. the Canadian dollar was the best performing currency against the US dollar last year. A combination of resisting rate cuts as well as an oil price rally in the last few months of 2019 helped drive strong returns.

China: Central Bank Frees up Funds ahead of Chinese New Year
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the amount of cash that all banks must hold as reserves, releasing around 800 billion yuan (£88 billion). While markets have welcomed an anticipated US-China Phase one trade deal, analysts expect a deal will relieve only some of the pressure weighing on the Chinese economy, which has been impacted by a slowdown in both domestic and global demand. This in turn has slowed down business investment and reduced confidence. Thus, freeing up funds should help inject stimulus into the economy.

Freeing up more cash also reduces the risks of a credit crunch. The Chinese New Year holidays are set to fall later this month, earlier than usual, and it’s expected that demand for cash will surge as people withdraw for travel and shopping. The PBOC remain confident that overall liquidity in the banking system will remain stable ahead of the Chinese New Year.

Pension freedom withdrawals hit £30bn

A total of £30 billion being withdrawn ‘flexibly’ from pensions, new figures published by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) show, taking advantage of the “pension freedoms” introduced in 2015. In this quarter, 327,000 individuals withdrew from pensions – up 27% from 258,000 in the same period of 2018. The latest withdrawals statistics is a 3% decrease from 336,000 individuals in the second quarter of this year. Figures show the average amount withdrawn per individual in this quarter of 2019 was £7,250.
This has fallen by 5% compared to last year – which stood at an average withdrawal of £7,600. Since reporting first became mandatory in the second quarter of 2016, average withdrawals have fallen “steadily and consistently”, HMRC said, with peaks in the second quarter of each year. Experts believe that the falling average withdrawal rate suggested that people are thinking carefully about how to spend their hard-earned pension rather than risking retirement ruin with an ill-advised binge.