China stockmarket the world’s best performing

China is on pace to be the world’s best-performing major stock market in 2019, with the benchmark CSI 300 index up by a third this year as investors shrug off the country’s slowing economy and bruising trade war with the US. Bourses in Shanghai and Shenzhen have added $1.4tn in market capitalisation so far, taking the total value of onshore equities to about $6.8tn this year, buoyed by a revival of domestic investor confidence and continuing international inflows.

The 31% advance by the index of major Shanghai and Shenzhen-listed stocks outpaces the 8.5% rise by the UK’s FTSE 100, the climb of 11.5% by Japan’s Topix and the gain of 22.3% by the US S&P 500. Even after accounting for weakness in China’s renminbi, the country’s stock benchmark is up more than 28% this year in dollar terms. The resurgence follows a dismal 2018, when the CSI 300 fell 25%. That made China the worst-performing major stock market as equities were battered by the intensifying trade war and a deleveraging campaign by Beijing that tightened domestic liquidity. However, Caroline Yu Maurer, head of greater China equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said further upside for stocks was probably limited this year, thanks partly to the smaller scope of stimulus planned for the economy.

Weekly Market Commentary – 13 December 2019

Brexit Clarity Following Conservative Win
This week, after years of uncertainty following the Brexit referendum, the country finally took a decisive step. In what direction remains to be seen. With a solid majority Boris Johnson has many more options in front of him; not beholden to any particular wing of the party, personal ideology or even much of a manifesto. Whether Johnson carries on in the style in which he’s begun or tacks to the centre is now the big question and might ultimately depend on who ends up sitting opposite him.

One thing we have some short-term clarity on is Brexit. The UK will leave the EU at the end of January and nothing much will change now until 2021. The shape of the UK’s relationship with the EU after that is yet to be determined, and like the rest of the Johnson premiership, all options are still on the table.

US: Federal Reserve Hold Rates Steady
The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced interest rates will be held steady following their latest committee meeting this week. The Fed also expects no further rate cuts from now to the end of 2020. Following numerous cuts in 2019, the Fed’s tone has changed from one of uncertainty to positivity for the US economy. With a strong economy, tight labour market and low inflation, the Fed can afford to keep interest rates unchanged.

However, they will continue to monitor the wider global economy and cut interest rates if needed. There were no objections from any of the committee members against holding rates steady in the last two FMOC meetings.  Following days of underperformance due to trade war fears, the US stock markets rebounded with both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 ticking up marginally following the announcement, while bond yields fell slightly.

South Africa: Rolling Blackouts Heighten Recession Fears
In February we observed floundering state-owned utility firm Eskom receive a hefty bailout package by the South African government, and in turn causing the balance sheet to balloon. Now the company is back in the headlines for steering the nation toward a technical recession. Eskom has been curbing power via rotational load shedding; heavy rains have soaked the coal which is used as fuel. Load shedding involves intentionally shutting down power in different areas within South Africa for non-overlapping periods of time. Earlier this week Eskom initiated a “stage 6” load-shedding effectively cutting 6,000 megawatts from the national grid.

By curbing power over consecutive days, the rolling blackouts have impacted factories and mining activity and ground traffic to a halt. However, the impact to GDP growth this quarter may not be as sharp as the last. Many businesses have begun winding down ahead of the Christmas holiday period.

UK: Economic Growth Flatlines
Steep falls in the manufacturing and construction industries have contributed to Britain’s economy stalling. In the three months to October, year-on-year growth in GDP was 0.7 per cent – the slowest growth rate since 2012. Manufacturing output continued its decline falling for the seventh consecutive month as factories battled against sluggish global economy and Brexit uncertainty.

The services sector was the only bright spark. In particular, estate agencies, healthcare and the scientific sector where the main drivers of modest growth. Looking at latest the soft data for November, key confidence indicators have dropped below 50, indicating an economy heading towards recession.

2020-2021 Lifetime Allowance

Based on the Annual CPI to September 2019 of 1.7% and legislation, the Lifetime Allowance for 2020-2021 would be calculated as £1,072,900. However, based on last year the Government chose to round up to the nearest £5,000 which would mean the Lifetime Allowance for 2020-2021 would be £1,075,000.

 

Regulations state that the previous Lifetime Allowance will be

(a) increased by the percentage increase in the index, and

(b) if the result is not a multiple of £100, rounded up to the nearest amount which is such a multiple.

The index referred to above is CPI.

 

The above figure is expected to be confirmed as part of the Budget and a statutory instrument passed to bring it into force.

 

Are VCTs worth the risk?

The amount of money invested in VCTs has increased sharply over the past decade, increasing by 374% from £154m in the 2008/09 tax year to £731m in 2018/19.  VCTs are like investment trusts but only invest in small, young and typically unlisted companies. Although such companies are riskier and statistically more likely to go bust, investing in a VCT comes with a 30% income tax relief from the government and any returns are tax free. The trusts have performed well in recent years — the top 16 VCTs have all at least doubled investors’ money on a net asset value return basis over the last 10 years while 2018 had the second biggest VCT season on record, according to data from the AIC.

Many put the rise in popularity of VCTs down to the cuts to the pension allowances and restrictions on buy-to-let investing which has resulted in VCTs being one of the few tax efficient investment avenues left for wealthier investors. any investment into VCTs should be measured and proportionate to the investor’s overall portfolio, their appetite for risk and ability to tie their money up for the medium to longer term. The tax features on VCTs are attractive — though not as generous as a pension for a higher or additional rate taxpayer — but these exist for a reason. The tax perks are provided by the government to incentivise investors for the risks involved when investing in the types of fledgling enterprises that VCTs are focused on and that the policy makers wish to support.

More scrutiny over peer to peer lending

IHE CITY watchdog has beefed up its scrutiny of the peer-to-peer lending sector in the wake of the Lendy collapse. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has faced criticism over its supervision of Lendy, having authorised the P2P property development lender just 10 months before it  went into administration with a mountain of defaulted loans. Industry insiders have noted a change in the FCA’s attitude in recent months as its reputation has been hit by the Lendy scandal as well as the fallout over the collapse of P2P lender Collateral and minibond provider London Capital & Finance. Some experts think the regulatory tightening may deter some new entrants.

If you are a P2P lender moving from appointed representative to full authorisation or new to the market or existing, we are seeing increased scrutiny. The FCA doesn’t want to stifle innovation but it has a duty to ensure customers understand what they are investing in. With the new regulations set out in the June policy statement, there is a higher bar that needs to be achieved in terms of ongoing compliance. There may be some unintended consequences as it could deter new entrants but the industry is agreed that a tougher stance is broadly positive.

Tax reliefs for wealthy under the spotlight

Savers and investors could be slapped with an extra £120billion in tax over five years under a major shake-up of capital gains tax touted by an influential think-tank. Capital gains tax on people’s wealth held in investments and the sale of second homes and buy-to-lets should be hiked to income tax levels, while the annual exempt allowance of £12,000 should be slashed to £1,000, it says. A tax raid on entrepreneurs was also outlined by the Institute for Public Policy Research, which could see those who have built up companies lose their special 10%.  The tax grab could be even greater if combined with a separate idea to scrap the current CGT exemption for people’s main properties – a new homeowner tax recently floated in a report commissioned by Labour.

Under the Just Tax plans published by the Institute for Public Policy Research today, a basic rate income tax payer would face a CGT hike from 10% on investments and 18% on home sales to 20% across the board. Higher or additional-rate taxpayers currently have CGT levied at 20% on their assets and 28% on properties which are not their main home. They would see their CGT rates soar to their income tax levels of 40% and 45% respectively, according to the report.

Weekly Marketing Commentary – 6 December 2019

M&S Property Gating isn’t the same as Woodford
This week’s gating of the M&G Property fund has reignited the debate between whether commercial property funds should be daily dealing or not. And even though the press coverage has been as high as the Woodford debacle, it’s much less controversial. Unlike equity funds, commercial property funds are inherently much more illiquid and harder to chop and change. Brexit uncertainty has meant that transaction volumes have languished at recent lows. With few buyers or sellers, property funds are even more vulnerable to a run. The need for prudent liquidity management is becoming ever more important.

What we could query however, is the high level of retail exposure within the direct property space. High streets are dying out in favour of online shopping. Even then not all retail exposure is bad, owning supermarkets or warehouse centres for the likes of Amazon is beneficial. What we really could question is if some of the funds could have sold down their bad retail exposure sooner and not during a time of stress.

OIL: OPEC Slides towards further cuts
It appears OPEC is gearing up for further oil cuts this year. A preliminary meeting of ministers involving Saudi Arabia and Russia, recommended production cuts of 500,000 barrels a day. Current production levels are around 1.2m barrels a day. The fear is that crude market could be heavily oversupplied in the first half of next year as US shale supply continues to ramp up while the global economy remains weak. So far OPEC cuts have done little to raise the price of crude oil because of US Shale supply and whether the latest cuts will have a significant impact remains to be seen.

Elsewhere but continuing with the same theme, Saudi Aramco has managed to raise $25.6bn in its initial public offering becoming the most valuable firm in the world and knocking Apple off the top spot. Market valuation for the state-owned oil giant reached $1.7tn just shy of the $2tn target the company was hoping for.

Eurozone: Does Germany Need Public Stimulus?
As Eurozone recession fears remain elevated and growth prospects look muted, economic forecasters and central banks alike have been urging member states to open their cheque books and spend their way out of the trouble. But key member states like Germany could be forgiven for asking whether they even need to. Latest data shows a tightening labour market, a relatively robust domestic economy and rising construction rates. These are some of the reasons that explain why German Chancellor Angela Merkel is keen to continue balancing the budget. Having said that, the chancellor’s tone is softening.

One of the main reasons in the change in tone is the continued deterioration in industrial production. New orders have dried up and not just from external customers – domestic demand has also been shrinking. The wider eurozone bloc suffers from the same ailments, but with even higher unemployment rates. The good news is that inflation for the bloc is picking up, a sign that the ECB’s low interest rate policy is working.

Global: Trump opens up new trade wars
China-US trade talks continue to progress well with China planning to scrap tariffs on US imported soybeans and pork products. However, the self-proclaimed tariff man President Trump took the opportunity this week to threaten Brazil, Argentina and France with hefty levies. Argentina and Brazil where accused of currency devaluation while France over Macron’s imposition of a digital services tax.

In July France passed a tax that targets around 30 big tech companies. The three percent charge applies to revenue from digital services earned by firms with more than $28m in French revenue and $830m worldwide, essentially appearing to discriminate against American tech companies. In turn, the Trump administration threatened duties of up to a 100 per cent on French imports of cheese, Champagne and other products. Trump also said he was putting new tariffs on steel and aluminium from Brazil and Argentina.

More Young People saving thanks to Automatic Enrolment

The TPR, the Pensions Regulator, has published a report examining the impact of automatic enrolment so far, along with future challenges.  A key finding was that more people in their twenties are now saving into their workplace pension due to the success of automatic enrolment. The report also shows a significant reduction in the gender gap in pension saving and an increase in savings among employees of small and micro businesses.

The report has been published annually since the start of automatic enrolment in 2012 and this is the final publication. Key highlights of the report include:

  • Between the introduction of the reforms in 2012 and April 2018, the overall proportion of eligible staff saving into a pension increased from 55% to 87%.
  • In the private sector, participation seen in 22 to 29-year olds increased from 24% in 2012 to 84% in 2018.
  • In 2018 participation rates for both male and female eligible employees in the private sector was 85%.

Probate Fee Increases Abandoned

The Ministry of Justice has abandoned the planned increase in probate fees for England and Wales.  It emerged that the Government had abandoned its controversial plans to replace flat fees of £155 or £215 for probate applications in England and Wales with a sliding scale running up to £6,000.  If you have an overwhelming feeling of dejà vu, you are not alone. The whole sorry saga is very similar to what happened in 2016/17 when the MoJ last proposed a substantial increase in probate fees. In that instance the first announcement was made in February 2016 and the climb down arrived 14 months later, as an election loomed into view.

 

On this occasion the timescale has been shorter, but more frustrating. The revised proposals came out in November and by early February had reached the point of a Statutory instrument that gained a 9-8 approval by the House of Commons Fourteenth Delegated Legislation Committee. From that stage everything went quiet, other than at probate offices which were swamped with applications leading to long delays. This weekend’s announcement may, like the 2017 abandonment, have more than a passing connection with an impending general election.

 

Last November’s explanatory memorandum suggested that the fee increases would yield £145m of additional income in 2019/20. Given the amount of increased spending the Government has promised in recent weeks, the Chancellor will hardly notice the loss.

Continuing equity release fears

Thousands of homeowners in their 50s used high-interest equity release loans last year to unlock cash from their properties. But experts have warned that interest payments could erode the total value of the properties leaving retirees unable to downsize and with no inheritance to pass onto children. The products are growing in popularity, but financial experts are concerned that people are accessing equity release too early and some are calling for the minimum age to be increased to 60 or higher.

Although borrowers are given a table to show the exact amounts involved, many will not attach importance to this. It is only when they have died, and the family come along to find the inheritance is much reduced, that complaints will occur. Advisers encourage family members and potential beneficiaries to be involved from the outset to avoid this time-bomb. With longer life expectancies, the time available for debts to increase is longer than it used to be so debts will be higher.