State pension age changes: MPs say Pension Credit should be extended to 1950s women

Women affected by the controversial state pension age increases should be entitled to access Pension Credit as compensation for the financial hardship they are facing, cross-party MPs have said. Labour’s Carolyn Harris and Tim Loughton, a Conservative MP, said they would not rest until we get justice for all women affected by these changes. It comes after two women who took the Government to court over the changes, which have increased women’s state pension age from 60 to 65, lost their landmark legal fight. About 3.8 million women born in the 1950s have been affected by increases to the state pension age, which are aimed at equalising it with that of men’s.

The retirement age will move to 66 for both sexes by 2020, ahead of further increases in the coming decades. The women claim they were not given adequate notice of the changes to prepare for extra years without their pension – although the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) maintains they were “clearly communicated”. The situation, the women say, has left them financially struggling in their early sixties, or having to work far longer than expected.

 

Weekly Market Commentary 15 November 2019

Corbyn’s Free Broadband Plan Dials up popularity with Millennials
This week we got a new twist in what is turning out to be a very strange election campaign so far. Despite Jeremy Corbyn’s desire to return to an era of state-run industry being well known, this week’s announcement of a plan to nationalise BT and provide free broadband for everyone still came as a major surprise. While the actual policy should be ignored, as Labour’s chances of forming a majority government are close to zero, early indications are this policy is likely to prove popular with the large section of the electorate that didn’t live through the 1970’s. Increased state ownership might not be ready for a return to UK policy mainstream yet, but it probably will be soon.

Elsewhere we got to see talk of “green shoots” of a recovery in global growth figures, in a nostalgic throwback to 2010. Positive data from Germany suggesting it is has escaped a recession along with increased chance of a resolution to the US-China trade war gives some hope that the global economic slowdown experienced for much of the year could be bottoming out.

Private Equity: KKR prepares record Walgreens Boots Bid
This week, one of the largest leveraged buyout deals (acquisition of another company using a significant amount of borrowed money) in history is gathering pace. Private equity firm KKR, flush with cash after selling its stake in Trainline following its successful IPO last summer have set their sights on taking Walgreens Boots Alliance, who owns Boots in the UK, Walgreens and Duane Reade in the US private.

Rising competition from online retailers such as Amazon (who are also starting to muscle in to the pharmacy space) have hurt the company. With over 200 store closures expected for Boots in the UK, a period of rebuilding and some time away from intense quarterly earnings scrutiny may prove beneficial for the company. With a market value of $56bn and $16.8bn in debt, the price to take the company private would top the largest leveraged buyout in history which was the sale of utility firm TXU to KKR and private equity investment firm TPG back in 2007.

Global: Equity and Bond Markets Diverge on Trade Talks
Optimism of a US-China trade deal and better-than-expected earnings from multinational corporations appear to have tempted investors back into riskier assets recently. Conversely, safe-haven assets have endured a torrid time with precious metals (Gold and Silver) last week suffering one of their worst falls of the year. In addition the Yen, which investors tend to turn to during times of uncertainty, also took a hit.

While equity markets are optimistic that phase one of the trade deal will be rubber stamped in the near term, bond markets remain sceptical. At the crux of the matter is agricultural purchases. The Americans have been pressing the Chinese to explain exactly how they expect to reach $50bn in agricultural imports annually, asking for monthly and quarterly breakdowns. So far the Chinese remain elusive. China have also insisted on both sides rolling back tariffs in phases before striking a final trade deal, something which President Trump denies ever agreeing with.

Eurozone: Germany Narrowly Avoids Recession
Germany defied expectations this week as the economy avoided an expected technical recession in Q3 this year. Europe’s largest economy grew by 0.1 per cent (Source: Destastis) and in turn also helped boost wider Eurozone GDP growth by 0.2 per cent from July to September. Rising household consumption was the main positive contributor with a notable mention to rising exports. Imports remained neutral.

However, the positive growth story for the export orientated model could be short lived. Weak economic data came out this week indicating that China, a country that is a key importer of German cars and machinery, announced factory output, consumption and exports all slowing. Economist believe the Chinese malaise will continue and with German car companies recently admitting tougher EU emissions regulations will hamper profitability in the near term, expect recession fears for Germany to remain high.

Don’t forget the Child Trust Fund

When it comes to saving money, many people will chose to put some aside for their children’s future. However, a Child Trust Fund set up by the Government could mean children already have up to £1,000 in the bank. Although many will save money for their children’s future, one scheme means their child could already have up to £1000 in a Child Trust Fund.

This is a fund set up by the Government which automatically gives children a sum of money at different stages in their lives. The money is deposited automatically and it can be claimed when children reach a certain age. On top of this basic payment, low income families received double payments each time and could have as much as £1000 saved per child. Even if parents did not open a Child Trust Fund account, they will still be able to access the money as the Government will have automatically opened the account and deposited the money on the child’s behalf. This benefit applies to all children born between 1 September 2002 and 2 January 2011 and only applies to those who are eligible for child benefit.

The money is available to access when the child turns 18-years-old. At this stage, the savings can either be reinvested into a similar adult ISA or can be used to fund immediate expenses such as university fees.

Restrictions on high risk investments?

Should investors who buy high-risk bonds be compensated when things go wrong? The obvious answer is no, with the clue in the word “risk”. But what if a bond is marketed to small investors with a “quarterly interest rate”, and is approved for inclusion in an Isa, and is promoted by a financial advice firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Would you expect the bond to lose not just the interest, but all the money you deposited? This is the type of scenario in which many investors in so-called “mini-bonds” have found themselves. About 11,000 investors in London Capital & Finance’s mini-bonds could lose a total of up to £236m, in one of the worst financial scandals for a decade.

Mini-bonds are just an IOU to a company, are rarely secured on anything, and are usually completely illiquid and cannot be traded. They are simply too risky for the average small investor. Even if the interest rate on the bond is 8%, it’s hardly enough to compensate for the evidently high risk of losing your shirt. Now Charles Randall, chairman of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), has conceded that it was “clear that there’s too much confusion” about what investments were covered by the regulator and which were not.

 

Low fees not the be all and end all for pensions savers

In recent years, the fees charged by pension schemes has come under much closer scrutiny. However, argues a new study by the Pensions Policy Institute (PPI), low fees are not necessarily the most important factor in determining the size of someone’s final pension pot. According to the study, charging structures play an important role in determining the size of a pension pot. But it says: “In order to secure improved outcomes, charges need to be considered alongside other factors such as contribution levels, investment strategies, member communications and experience, the strength of governance oversight and the impact of having multiple pots.” Perhaps expectedly, the most important factor identified by the PPI report was the contribution levels of members. The study found that someone contributing an extra 2% of their salary on top of the legal minimum contribution would achieve a 25% increase in their retirement income, regardless of the charging structure of their pension scheme. Another big risk to pensioners identified in the report is instances of multiple changes for those who have several pots. With the introduction of auto-enrolment, a growing number of savers are now likely to have multiple pension pots with the various employers they have had over their working life. This, the report says, can work against people achieving better results, as they can lose out by paying multiple charges across the accumulation period. Multiple pots can also mean that people are at risk from losing track of their pensions.

 

A re-think on how property is taxed?

Tax on property transactions is a contentious issue, and the government is again being urged to rethink the way it taxes property investors to spark the housing market. In a plea to the government to reduce stamp duty charges to ease pressure on the UK property market, Mortgages.online, an online mortgage broker, believes the buy-to-let market should be a major focus. Stamp duty was last increased for all property purchases in 2014, while April 2016 saw the second home surcharge introduced, meaning that a 3% additional charge was payable for any buy-to-let or additional properties bought. This came in alongside the announcement of progressive tax relief cuts for landlords – Section 24 – which is currently in phase three and will mean that landlords will only be able to claim income tax relief on residential finance costs at the basic rate of tax by April 2020.

Commentators have been quick to point out that the increased stamp duty payable on buy-to-let purchases, and the removal of the ability to offset mortgage costs has put many investors off the property market, with a knock on effect of reducing the stock of rental properties.

Weekly Market Commentary – 8th November 2019

US Election 2020: Don’t Trust the Polls just yet
This week while the UK election got off to a blundering start, with a series of gaffs and candidate resignations, the US election is gaining momentum despite being a full year away. New polling showing Donald Trump losing to all major Democratic candidates caused a great deal of excitement, with even normally sensible fund managers we talk to actively discussing how they think future president Warren will impact their portfolios. The peculiarities of the US electoral system means national polls are much less relevant than we may think.

The 2016 election was decided by 4 states and just 77,000 voters. Among this group, president Trump remains more popular. It is also extremely early to be considering potential matchups against Trump despite the media attention; Warren has had a good run in the polls vs. front runner, former vice president Joe Biden, but at this point in the 2007 Democratic primary most opinion polls had Hillary Clinton as heavy favourite over Barack Obama. A lot will change once primary voting begins in Iowa in February.

UK: Brexit Uncertainty Hampers Service Growth
The latest soft data for the UK showed activity for the dominant service sector practically static, rising from 49.5 points in September to 50, a level where the sector is neither contracting or growing. Business levels were supported by existing contracts, but with fewer service contracts coming in and existing backlogs starting to dwindle, there is real concern that the sector could remain stagnant for a while longer. Meanwhile, manufacturing and in particular construction, (which forms the remainder of the PMI composite) remains in contraction.

According to Markit, new service work has declined seven times in the first ten months of 2019. In turn, workforce numbers continue to fall as firm’s lower headcount to deal with the drop-in demand. However, the outlook for the sector is slowly improving albeit from historically low levels. Political uncertainty has been the foremost concern, and there is hope this could be reduced if Brexit is resolved in early-2020.

Oil: OPEC Struggle to cope with US Shale oil rise
OPEC, an intergovernmental organization that controls a meaningful portion of the world’s oil supply, this week announced that its mulling further cuts. The US is now the world’s largest oil producer due to rising output from shale oil as the process of hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”), becomes ever more refined. This oversupply means that OPEC’s slice of the global oil pie is expected to shrink from 37 to 31 per cent by 2024.

The glut in oil also means that the price continues to hover at low levels, great for consumers but a headache for OPEC members, the majority who rely on oil revenues to cover their national spending. OPEC and its allies have lowered supply this year in order to boost the current price of oil which has been holding at around $60 dollars per barrel. But with US oil output expected to increase by 40 per cent over the next six years, the cartel’s current strategy of continual cuts may end up backfiring in the long term.

Retail: Mothercare falls into Administration
This week, Mothercare became the latest high-profile casualty on the high street, appointing administrators to wind down the business after it became clear that its journey to profitability was never going to reach a conclusion. 79 shops are expected to close, putting 2,500 jobs at risk. Mothercare’s highly profitable international business will not be included in the administration. The 58-year old company joins the likes of Bonmarche, Toy ‘R’ Us, Maplin and HMV in the list of retailers who have succumbed to administration since 2018.

Mothercare has struggled to cope with both the consumer rotation to ecommerce and intense competition from supermarkets who have muscled in to Mothercare’s niche, often offering cheaper alternatives. Factor in consistently high overheads its more surprising that retailer, who has only had two years of positive earnings (before tax) since 2013, lasted so long.

Inheritance tax take rises

An Inheritance tax should be reformed to reflect inflation, a lawyer has argued as receipts rose to a record £5.4 billion. HM Revenue and Customs figures showed that revenue in 2018-19 rose by 3% from £5.2 billion the previous year. Of the £5.4 billion collected, 72% was from estates worth more than £1 million. In 2016-17, 4.6% of deaths resulted in a charge. The figure was 5.9% before the financial crisis but fell to 2.7% in 2009-10. It has climbed steadily since then, due to long-term rises in property prices and the nil-rate band remaining at £325,000 for the past decade. In the past nine years the amount HMRC has raised through IHT has more than doubled.

The proportion of estates which pay the tax has also been increasing, although it still remains relatively low at 4.6%. Experts believe that the introduction in 2017-18 of a top-up allowance on the normal IHT threshold had yet to have any strong impact. The residence nil rate band (RNRB) gives an additional allowance to people leaving their family home to direct descendants like children or grandchildren. It will be worth an additional £175,000 by 2020-21.

The figures show the RNRB hasn’t reduced the amount paid overall in 2018-19, because so much of the tax is collected from larger estates, for whom this is a small portion of their estate — and who begin to lose this relief as soon as their estate is over £2 million. In July, the Office of Tax Simplification proposed several changes to inheritance tax. The body did not make any recommendations on the RNRB, saying it was too soon to do so.

 

IR35 tribunal implications for freelancers

HMRC has won an IR35 tribunal case at the High Court against three BBC presenters who will now have to pay back tens of thousands in taxes. The High Court ruled that they had effectively been forced into contracting through personal service companies by the BBC, arguing that there was an “imbalance of bargaining power”. The judges said: “The BBC were in a unique position and used it to force the presenters into contracting through personal service companies and to accept reductions in pay.”

The presenters argued that they were self-employed but the court ruled that because they were told how, where and when to work, that the “assumed relationships were ones of employment”. HMRC published draft legislation in July that, from April next year, places the onus on private sector firms to check whether contractors need to pay tax and national insurance contributions, shifting responsibility from the contractor to the employer using their services. But commentators have emphasised how vital it is that HMRC now provides the greater clarity which is still needed to avoid others having to go through this ordeal.

 

Labour take aim at pensioners funds

Labour is plotting a staggering spend increase that would see spending on welfare hit nearly four times the amount that currently goes on the health service. The research was released as Labour admitted it was planning to impose fresh tax hikes to fund a raft of new spending commitments made at its annual party conference in Brighton. Conservative Party chairman James Cleverly warned that the benefits system must give a “safety net to those who need it while being fair to our hardworking taxpayers”. Labour’s benefits bombshell includes a so-called universal basic income that would give everyone a fixed sum regardless of their wealth.

John McDonnell has previously announced that the party would trial the scheme if it takes power and picked Liverpool, Sheffield and the Midlands as the first places to test it out. Tory analysis of trade union investigations into the cost put the estimated price tag for the scheme at around £504 billion a year. Labour have also rejected planned future increases in the pension age that would mean workers retiring from age 67 or older. Financial experts have estimated that would cost around £9.9 billion, a 10 per cent hike in costs of the State Pension, or a significant cut in the amount paid out to pensioners.